Weekly Market Recap | October 12, 2026

Weekly Market Recap | October 12, 2026

OCT 12, 2026 5 MIN READ
By: Krilogy
Weekly Market Recap | October 12, 2026
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Week in Review

Equity Markets

It was a positive week for the markets with certain indices for large cap stocks at or near record highs. The S&P 500 Index recorded 1.17% growth last week. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.96%, and the Nasdaq rose by 0.65%.1 The Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio stands at 19.1, a reading which is even to its 10-Year Average while below its 5-Year Average [19.8].2 Large caps fared better than small caps last week, with the Russell 2000 Index down (0.90%). Indeed, the Russell 2000 has declined 5.7% over the past 5 weeks amidst fears of rising interest rates. By contrast, Russell’s large cap index increased more than 1.5%.3

Fixed Income Markets

Yields on US Treasurys expanded last week to highs not seen since 2002 before then falling back in on themselves as credit markets stabilized. By the end of the week, yields on the 10-Year Treasurys were at 5.24%, with the 2-Year Notes at 4.79% and the 30-Year Bond at 5.60%. The Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index appreciated by 0.39% last week. Investment-Grade Corporates rose by 0.48% while High-Yield Bonds gained 0.20%.4 This appreciation recognizes a reversal of five consecutive weeks of broadly negative performance for US Treasurys, with positive buying of new issues at last week’s auction. And while one good week does not necessarily end a bear market, there were indeed indications of positive new purchases amidst broader trading.5

Economic Updates

Minutes were released from the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee meeting in September. The indication is that most policymakers currently anticipate another interest rate hike before the end of the year amidst persistent inflationary pressures. That said, any decisions would be data-dependent and are not pre-set.6 Consumer Sentiment, measured by the University of Michigan, hit a five-month low amidst stubborn inflation and rising interest rates. Concurrently, the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indicate forward expectations of 3.9% inflation, their highest reading since May 2023.

Looking Ahead

Equity Markets

Earnings Season begins in earnest this week. Reporting on the Third Quarter’s results begins with a particular focus given towards the Financial Services sector and the largest individual banks’ announcements forthcoming, as well as certain non-US Information Technology companies.7 Earnings forecasts are high for US large cap companies. An analyst survey by FactSet has expectations for companies in the S&P 500 Index to generate an average earnings growth rate of 29.6%. Should this happen, it would be the third consecutive quarter of its earnings growth rate exceeding 25%.

Fixed Income Markets

Last week’s positive bond market activity indicates the potential for stabilization and the contraction of Treasury yields going into the Fourth Quarter. Much attention is being given to European sovereign bonds, recognizing their weakness while US bonds stabilize. And while the Federal Reserve has indicated a likelihood of an interest rate hike before the year concludes, the expectations are for it to take place at the Open Market Committee’s December meeting rather than its October meeting.8 Keep in mind that we have a shortened week for bond trading, with fixed income markets closed this Monday for Columbus Day.

Economic Updates

September’s Consumer Price Index will be released this week, providing stronger insights into the state of domestic inflation. This will be a primary factor in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process for interest rates when they meet on October 28th. Other announcements we will be watching for this week include the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; Existing Home Sales; the Federal Budget Balance; Retail Sales; Import & Export Price Indexes; Industrial Production; Manufacturing Production; Capacity Utilization; and the Beige Book.

Sources:

  1. JP Morgan Asset Management: https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/market-insights/market-updates/weekly-market-recap/
  2. FactSet Earnings Insight: https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_100926.pdf
  3. John Hancock Investment Management, LLC: https://www.jhinvestments.com/weekly-market-recap#market-moving-news
  4. Nuveen, LLC: https://www.nuveen.com/en-us/insights/investment-outlook/fixed-income-weekly-commentary
  5. LPL Research: https://www.lpl.com/research/blog/weekly-market-performance-october-9-2026.html
  6. T. Rowe Price: https://www.troweprice.com/personal-investing/resources/insights/global-markets-weekly-update.html
  7. Charles Schwab: https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open
  8. CME Group: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Important Disclosures:

Investment Advisory Services offered through Krilogy®, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Please review all prospectuses and Krilogy’s Form ADV 2A carefully prior to investing. This is neither an offer to sell nor a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities described herein. An offering is made only by a prospectus to individuals who meet minimum suitability requirements. All expressions of opinion are subject to change. This information is distributed for educational purposes only, and it is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, recommendation, or endorsement of any particular security, products, or services. Diversification does not eliminate the risk of market loss. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Investors should understand the risks involved of owning investments, including interest rate risk, credit risk and market risk. Investment risks include loss of principal and fluctuating value. There is no guarantee an investing strategy will be successful. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Indices are not available for direct investment; therefore, their performance does not reflect the expenses associated with the management of an actual portfolio. The S&P data is provided by Standard & Poor’s Index Services Group. Services and products offered through Krilogy® are not insured and may lose value. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial advisor and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein.